Saturday, April 22, 2006
Last Minute Election Predictions
Apologies in advance to whoever posted Thursday that the four front runners (Nagin, Landrieu, Forman and Couhig) were going to be on WWL radio that afternoon-- looked, can't find the post. That added to my growing suspicion, that the Gambit endorsement didn't reflect a Landrieu surge so much as a Forman fade that was primarily benefitting and/or caused by Couhig. Forman's tanking and he knows it. So my no longer bold prediction is Nagin and Landrieu both in the mid-twenties, Forman and Couhig both mid-teens. The Couhig surge/ Forman fade probably came too late for Couhig to make a runoff.
Two wild cards: Watson and Nagin underpolling.
I don't think Nagin benefits from race nearly as much as he benefits from a sympathy backlash from people who think he gets unfairly blamed for things beyond his control. I can understand that, but it's not his performance during the crisis that made me vote against him. Still, I see a lot of the don't know/won't say vote as Nagin.
I really don't know what to make of Watson, nothing between 5% and 20% would surprise me. I'm probably reading too much into the fact that even my mother-- a seventy-something year old white woman who recently moved from Carrollton to Metairie-- likes Watson and not only for the Nagin attacks. Unfotunately, because of the exchanges with Nagin, people didn't notice how strong he was on the issues. I've got to think that being the one candidate who really seemed to care about the displaced, had to have helped him. It's a shame that he wasn't taken more seriously, but, then again, I scoffed at his candidacy until the last week or two.
City Council:
At large: Thomas in easily. Optimistically predicting a Fielkow/Clarkson runoff for the other spot. Clarkson's commercials were much better, don't know if she got the NIMBY backlash she should have, I didn't hear anything of it if she did.
District C: From yard signs an Early/Booth runoff. If people really vote race, Carter must benefit from being the only serious black candidate. Wonder how much weight the Hatty Anderson endorsement carries.
Two wild cards: Watson and Nagin underpolling.
I don't think Nagin benefits from race nearly as much as he benefits from a sympathy backlash from people who think he gets unfairly blamed for things beyond his control. I can understand that, but it's not his performance during the crisis that made me vote against him. Still, I see a lot of the don't know/won't say vote as Nagin.
I really don't know what to make of Watson, nothing between 5% and 20% would surprise me. I'm probably reading too much into the fact that even my mother-- a seventy-something year old white woman who recently moved from Carrollton to Metairie-- likes Watson and not only for the Nagin attacks. Unfotunately, because of the exchanges with Nagin, people didn't notice how strong he was on the issues. I've got to think that being the one candidate who really seemed to care about the displaced, had to have helped him. It's a shame that he wasn't taken more seriously, but, then again, I scoffed at his candidacy until the last week or two.
City Council:
At large: Thomas in easily. Optimistically predicting a Fielkow/Clarkson runoff for the other spot. Clarkson's commercials were much better, don't know if she got the NIMBY backlash she should have, I didn't hear anything of it if she did.
District C: From yard signs an Early/Booth runoff. If people really vote race, Carter must benefit from being the only serious black candidate. Wonder how much weight the Hatty Anderson endorsement carries.
